Echoes of Québec: Alberta’s Growing Divide
Canada is once again facing internal fractures. This time, it’s not from the East, but the West. The Alberta separatist movement, once fringe and largely symbolic, has gained new momentum amid economic grievances and political frustration. The parallels to Québec’s past sovereignty campaigns are striking—and they pose serious implications for Canada’s economic and political cohesion.
Though Alberta’s rhetoric hasn’t reached the intensity of Québec’s referendums, the sentiment is no longer easy to dismiss. For policymakers, business leaders, and investors, the movement underscores a deeper undercurrent of regional discontent that threatens long-term national stability.
In a recent poll, 51% of Albertans reported that they want the provincial government of Premier Danielle Smith to prepare a plan on how Alberta could gain independence¹. This signals growing frustration among the population.
Do you think the Alberta government should or should not prepare a detailed plan for how Alberta could become its own independent country?
Québec and Alberta Compared
Québec’s sovereignty movements were rooted in cultural preservation, linguistic identity, and a distinct societal vision. Alberta’s grievances, by contrast, are economic and political. Among the most cited concerns are perceived federal hostility toward energy development, inequities in equalization transfers, and underrepresentation in national decision-making.
In an article published early May, Premier Danielle Smith described a ‘hostile federal government’ that imposes many restrictions, including ‘the no new pipelines law, oil tanker ban, net zero electricity regulations, net zero vehicle mandate, oil and gas emissions cap’ among many more². Smith mentions that these laws ‘cost Canada and Alberta hundreds of billions in investments each year’.
The Economic Stakes of Western Alienation
Alberta made up about 16% of Canadian GDP in 2024, standing at $353 billion³. It grew 2.7% compared to the national average of 1.6%⁴. The province’s strategic importance means that even the perception of political instability has implications for investment and policy planning. A rise in separatist sentiment risks creating uncertainty around regulatory cohesion, interprovincial infrastructure, and long-term energy strategy.
Moreover, investor sentiment could weaken if national unity becomes a recurring question. For example, after the 1995 Québec referendum, the Canadian dollar dropped by over 2% against the U.S. Dollar in three days⁵. A resurgence of similar dynamics in Alberta, even without a formal vote, could carry comparable risks.
Ottawa’s Balancing Act
The Carney government inherits a delicate situation. On one hand, it seeks to maintain fiscal credibility and accelerate Canada’s transition to a low-carbon economy. On the other, it must contend with provinces like Alberta, where energy development remains central to economic well-being. In fact, Carney did promise to make Canada ‘the world’s leading energy superpower’ during his campaign. He supports building a pipeline ‘if there is consensus’, although he did also say that he can help create that consensus⁶.
Carney leads a minority government and must rely on a coalition to pass legislation. Other parties, primarily the Green Party and Bloc Québécois, have strong climate-focused agendas that oppose new fossil fuel infrastructure. This political constraint may prevent him from advancing Alberta-aligned priorities, despite campaign promises. For many in the West, this reinforces a perception that federal politics consistently overlook or override regional interests. The risk is not just legislative gridlock, but deepened alienation in a province already skeptical of Ottawa’s intentions.
Implications for Business and Investment Strategy
For Canadian businesses, rising regional fragmentation adds a new layer of strategic risk. Key questions include:
How might interprovincial trade be affected?
Could regional policy divergence raise compliance costs or limit cross-border operations?
Will investment decisions shift in response to long-term political risk?
Interprovincial trade barriers already cost Canada an estimated $200 billion annually⁷. A destabilized federal framework could further entrench these inefficiencies.
Outlook: A Country at a Crossroads
While Alberta separation remains unlikely in the near term, the rising discontent reflects deeper structural challenges in Canadian federalism. If left unresolved, the grievances may entrench into permanent divisions—political, economic, and social. Québec’s past offers a cautionary tale: federal neglect, even if perceived rather than real, can erode trust and feed a cycle of alienation. For Carney’s government and Canadian businesses alike, addressing Alberta’s concerns with both substance and respect is imperative.
A cohesive economic future requires a federation that works for all provinces. The cost of ignoring that lesson may be higher than Canada can afford.
Sources
